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Monthly_Outlook_-_BBC_Weather.txt
Monthly OutlookImage source,lottery ticket stocks BBC Weather Watcher / PiaPublished17 June 2024Updated 9 September 2025Unsettled conditions are most likely to continue through much of the rest of September. However, by early October there could be drier conditions developing as high pressure becomes more influential. Much will depend on how the atmosphere gets disturbed by the possibility of former tropical systems across the Atlantic. Tuesday 9 to Sunday 14 September Occasionally wet and windyWith further frontal systems moving in from the Atlantic there will be a continuation of very unsettled weather through the second half of this week. There will be further showers or more sustained periods of rain, some occasionally heavy with a risk of thunderstorms and hail, possible at almost any time but with an elevated chance on Thursday. Winds will be strong and gusty at times, probably strongest on Thursday and Sunday. Temperatures are going to be rather variable, starting near or a little above average but falling near to slightly below normal between Thursday and Sunday, although no significant chill is expected. The best chance of any sunshine could be between showers on Thursday and Friday.Monday 15 to Sunday 21 September Remaining changeableUncertainty in weather patterns increases after mid-September but disturbed conditions are still likely next week. With south-westerly winds the start of the week should see a temporary warm-up, with temperatures above normal for a couple of days. However, a low pressure system is likely to bring wet and windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday, with some scattered, showery rain for England Wales, especially northern and western regions, along with strong breezes. Central, southern and eastern England should have the warmest and driest conditions as a weak high pressure ridge moves across.There are some signs that a deep low pressure system may move across around midweek, so there will be risks of some particularly strong winds. Even if it does not end up being that intense, this system should still bring some heavy rain, and temperatures will drop near average or a shade below. A couple of drier and calmer days may follow under a transient high pressure ridge, but more rain could be in the offing before the week is out.Monday 22 September to Sunday 5 OctoberPotentially drier, chiefly in southern areasThroughout late September and into early October it looks like high pressure could become more dominant for a while across Europe, with the average position of the main frontal boundary shifting a bit farther north. That could lead to chances of longer drier and calmer periods, perhaps more especially in southern areas, with the probability of rain increasing the farther north and west you are. Temperatures are most likely to fluctuate around seasonal values but may rise a little above. However, much will depend on exactly where this possible high pressure development sets up.The outlook is complicated by the possibility of the remnants of tropical cyclones, including ex-hurricanes, crossing the North Atlantic. These have the potential to disturb weather patterns downstream across Europe, or impact rainfall amounts and wind strengths should any directly target the UK. Having said that, the tropical North Atlantic looks quiet at the moment. Further aheadIn Friday's update we see if any better agreement develops between models, and we will be able to take a look further into October.More on this storyIs a UK heatwave in the weather forecast for September?Published3 SeptemberHow does air pressure affect our weather? Video, 00:01:13How does air pressure affect our weather?Published7 April 20221:13
